Greetings—this is Alex Sheremet, coming to you from the future, where nothing makes sense, and everything remains undecided. You are now where I was twelve months ago, grappling with the prospect of yet another Trump term as the world casually spins out of control. After Kamala Harris entered the race, I said her campaign was at the mercy of timing, with a list of events likely to be in Trump’s favor by Election Day. These included a mixed-up economy, two failed wars, and the Party’s erosion with its base. I argued Democrats lacked the tools to deal with national crises, and, after failing to restrain Israel, that Benjamin Netanyahu would throw the election to Donald Trump. This was before Trump lost the debate to Kamala Harris—before Israel expanded its war into Lebanon—before a late spending blitz solidified Trump in the swing states. These are important events, in any election, but equally important was Harris herself, who talks and behaves in ways that winning Democrats do not. She evaded the media for weeks, then proved unable to answer direct questions. Kamala’s first interview was strictly edited and featured Tim Walz as chaperone. Her gaffes would make it into comedy routines by increasingly hostile liberals. Trump defined Kamala because Kamala failed to define herself, even as she spent millions on her image and likeness. Meanwhile, Trump and JD Vance were everywhere, earning more media than paying for it.

Put another way, the trajectory had already been set. Kamala Harris took too long to distance herself from Joe Biden and refused to make concessions to her base. She had no explanation for her shifting positions and often took no position at all. By contrast, Donald Trump’s vision was obvious. It is true some were unhappy with the first Trump term, yet many more remembered a time of low inflation and relative peace. Abortion rights energized Democrats, but not enough to reverse Trump gains. More pressing was the economy and illegal immigration, and while the latter first peaked right before COVID, it was COVID which allowed Trump and Biden to impose harsh border controls. Once these rules expired, Joe Biden was blamed for a border crisis invisible to most blue-state voters—until, of course, red states began to bus migrants into blue cities, thus ‘radicalizing’ them. As a result, Trump increased his vote share with almost every demographic. Indeed, the Democratic Party had now become so toxic that even Muslim voters looked past Trump’s Muslim ban. And what did they see as they looked past? Probably nothing—which is a still more rational choice than voting for the headlines and the images to which they’d been subjected. […]